PROBABILITY SIMULATIONS SOFTWARE
The Probability Simulations Software is a free tool for teaching core concepts of statistics and probability theory. The software is designed for interactive and dynamic classroom demonstration and experimentation to help your students learn on a deeper level. Graphic outputs from the software also offer teachers an easy way to create custom instructional content. Each software module presented below includes examples of instructional applications and user interface graphics for quick familiarization.
EXPLORE THE CLASSIC SIMULATIONS MODULE
This module includes the following classic simulations:
▶ Birthday
▶ Casino Craps
▶ Monte Carlo π/4
▶ Buffon's Coin
▶ Buffon's Needle
▶ Triangle and Stick
▶ Numerical Expression
▶ Convex Quadrilateral
▶ Obtuse Triangle (3 points)
▶ Obtuse Triangle (3 angles)
Each of the classic simulations can be run in manual or automatic mode to demonstrate how the experimental probability converges toward the expected probability as the number of trials increases. The following examples of software output demonstrate two of the classic simulations, Casino Craps and Buffon's Coin.
▷ Casino Craps Simulation
Manual Mode
The animation to the right shows the simulation of 40 games of Casino Craps being played one game at a time in manual mode. Users can manually increment the simulation count indefinitely at a pace that is appropriate for the lesson being taught.
Game rules are as follows:
- If the shooter rolls 7 or 11 on the come-out-roll (i.e. the first roll of a game), the shooter wins and the game ends.
- If the shooter rolls 2, 3, or 12 on the come-out-roll, the shooter loses the game ends.
- If the shooter rolls 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 on the come-out-roll, the shooter's roll becomes his point and continues rolling the dice until he wins by rolling his point or loses by rolling a 7.
Automatic Mode
In automatic mode, users can adjust number of experimental trials in the "Edit Parameters" menu to explore how the experimental probability of winning a game converges to the expected probability as the number of games played increases.
▷ Buffon's Coin Simulation
Manual Mode
Buffon's coin problem asks to find the probability that a randomly tossed coin with radius r will intersect a line if given a floor covered with squares or equilateral triangles. This example uses a coin with a radius of 1 unit and a square with side lengths of 10 units. Note that the inside square represents the area where a coin cannot possibly intersect the outer square. The animation below shows the simulation of 35 individual coin tosses in manual mode.
Users can manually increment the simulation count indefinitely at a pace that is appropriate for the lesson being taught.
Automatic Mode
The examples below show results for 1,000 and 10,000 coin tosses in automatic mode. Users can adjust number of experimental trials in the "Edit Parameters" menu.
EXPLORE THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION SIMULATIONS MODULE
This module includes the following probability distribution simulations:
▶ Toss Single Die
▶ Toss N Die
▶ Binomial
▶ Poisson
▶ Geometric
▶ HyperGeometric
▶ Urn with Balls
▶ Normal
▶ Exponential
▶ t-Distribution
▶ F-Distribution
▶ Chi-Square
▶ Uniform Continuous
Each of the probability distributions simulations can be run in manual or automatic mode. Users can adjust the sample population, adjust the confidence interval, conduct hypothesis testing, and experiment with sampling statistics and variance. Cumulative probability, inverse probability, and critical values for various distributions can also be calculated using this module. The following examples of software output demonstrate two of the probability distributions simulations, Binomial and Normal.
▷ Binomial Probability Distribution
Manual Mode
The animation below shows the cumulative results of 70 simulations run in manual mode. A Bernoulli trial is any experiment that has only two outcomes named "success" and "failure" (e.g. a multiple choice test where each question has only one correct answer). Binomial distributions are used to find the probability of obtaining x successes in n independent Bernoulli trials. In this example, each simulation has 40 Bernoulli trials where the probability for success is 0.3. Users can manually increment the simulation count indefinitely at a pace that is appropriate for the lesson being taught.
Automatic Mode
The graphic below shows the cumulative results of 10,000 simulations run in automatic mode without changing the parameters. Users can adjust number of experimental trials in the "Edit Parameters" menu.
▷ Normal Probability Distribution
Manual Mode
The normal distribution is important because a wide variety of populations and sample statistics have a normal probability distribution. Random variable x of a normal population is continuous and ranges from -∞ to +∞. The area under the normal curve from µ -kσ to µ +kσ is always the same for any choice of µ and σ. The animation below shows interval testing at the 95% confidence level in manual mode for 25 simulations where µ = 0 and σ =1.
Users can manually increment the simulation count indefinitely at a pace that is appropriate for the lesson being taught.
The animation below shows hypothesis testing at the 5% significance level in manual mode for 25 simulations where µ = 0 and σ =1.
Automatic Mode
The graphic below shows the cumulative probability of 2,000 simulations run in automatic mode with mean µ = 0 and standard deviation σ =1. Users can adjust number of experimental trials in the "Edit Parameters" menu.
DOWNLOAD AND USE THE SOFTWARE FOR FREE
Version 3.2.1
Released 8/28/16
(1.47 MB file size)
Download the Probability Simulations Software installation package by clicking on the icon to the right, and install the software on your computer or external hard drive by executing the installer package. This software is FREE - no strings attached. We are excited to see how creative math teachers everywhere implement the software to generate custom instructional content and present mathematical concepts in their classrooms. Note that the software is licensed for educational purposes only. Please review the License Agreement before downloading and using the software.
- The software requires Microsoft® Vista, 7, 8, or 10 operating system. Sorry, Mac® OS is not supported at this time.
- The software license does not expire.
- Use with confidence; our software contains no advertising, malware, spyware, or other subversive code.
- The software installation package can be downloaded anytime and without restriction on number of downloads.
- Technical support is provided for questions regarding use and functionality of the software.
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We hope that you thoroughly enjoy using our software. If you find the Probability Simulations Software useful, consider making a donation. We are constantly working to improve its functionality and usability while developing new software. We are 100% supported by donations, so your support goes further than you may realize. Thanks so much!
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Release Notes
Minor bug fix in the Obtuse Triangle (3 Angles) Simulation.
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